Clive Owen LLP

There was no appetite for a rise or cut in interest rates amongst Yorkshire Shadow MPC members this month. They are looking for a period of stability to allow previous rate rises to take full effect, and to hopefully see inflation continue on a downward trajectory.

The MPC is a partnership between The York Press, Clive Owen LLP and Recognition PR, which considers the state of the region’s economy and gives experts from a variety of sectors the opportunity to argue their case for a shift, or hold, in the interest rate.

Phillipa Symington, partner at Clive Owen LLP in York, said: “I think there’s more and more debt that is maturing, which means it’s being replaced by a lot more expensive, higher cost money. People have had to cut costs so they haven’t had extra to spend on early repayment. People can see a shift in inflation, there’s an optimism but a very, very cautious kind.”

Gary Smith, chartered financial planner at Evelyn Partners said: “The markets feel that the UK will probably go into a shallow recession. But unless the Bank of England reduces rates, that recession could deepen. So the markets are anticipating that the UK and the Bank of England will probably start reducing rates by the end of 2024, start of 2025.”

Rob Lazenby of Castle Employment said: I think we’re continuing to see possibly a weaker economic outlook, Therefore there’s quite a lot of caution among most businesses in terms of recruitment. In terms of candidates, we have seen a rise in availability at the moment, which I guess you could link back towards redundancies seen across different sectors, and people’s current job security.”

Dave Broadbent, partner at insolvency practitioners Begbies Traynor said: “I’m glad Gary was the first person to mention the R word! I don’t think we’ve had that on the agenda for several months now but we are incredibly busy. November is generally one of our quietest months and I think the slight difference that we’re seeing now is it’s not the small businesses that are starting to struggle.”

Dr Bob Gammie of York Business School said: “From a University perspective the biggest factor is not so much interest rates, it’s the UK visa policy. I don’t personally think there’ll be any changes in interest rates so I think we will just trade on into the New Year with exactly the same set of circumstances as we have. And I don’t think the visa policy is going to change. The CBI are saying they don’t see a decrease in interest rates until 2026, which seems to be slightly over pessimistic. But we have to pursue this for long-term economic stability in the country. No change in interest rates and inflation remaining stubbornly high is how I see it.”

Steve Lowe, of Newsquest, said: “There’s a real spilt between public and private sector and it’s been well publicised that council debt is quite high at the moment which impacts their ability to spend not only on marketing but how they spend into the local economy, which impacts on people. York at the minute is very buoyant, which you’d expect in December and it’ll be interesting what January is like when the Christmas trading has gone. I’m cautiously pessimistic unfortunately because I think that the finances in the public sector are challenged, and I think that’s going to play through in lots of ways.”

Christoper White, chief financial officer at the Ecology Building Society, said: “I think the fact that we’ve seen the trajectory for bank base rate flatten means that people have had a little more confidence in the markets and also a small uptick in their own house prices. I think the expectation in 2024 we will see decreases, and the volume of transactions will be lower.”