Kromek

Tomorrow will be a year since Russia invaded Ukraine; another bloody milestone in the history of Europe. A belligerent nation set out on 24 February 2022, with the expectation of swift victory. But the Ukrainian armies, and their armed civilians, have put up the fight of their lives, defying global expectations and driving back the Russian advances with astonishing alacrity.

Unfortunately, it does not appear that there is any resolution in sight, nor that such a resolution would deliver a stable global outlook. In the last few weeks, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved the hands of the so-called Doomsday Clock to the closest they have ever been to midnight because of the increasing likelihood of nuclear Armageddon.

In a white paper I recently co-authored with chemical and nuclear weapons expert, Col. (Rtd) Hamish de Bretton Gordon, Iexamine UK strategies, against the backdrop of the conflict and potential expansion of nuclear power into the global energy mix.

The sad reality is that since the Russian incursion into Ukraine, the rhetoric on atomic deployment has intensified, reaching a level of diplomatic tensions not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian leaders seem to think nothing of threatening to ‘push the button’ or visibly mobilising the apparatus necessary to do so. And such deployment seems more likely today than had Russia won the decisive victory expected. They are on the back foot, and often desperate times call for desperate measures.

Equally, while modern nuclear power plants are built to withstand natural and deliberate damage, they are not invincible and the nuclear waste and materials around them are vulnerable to either accidental damage or in producing ‘dirty’ bombs. Throughout the war, there has been sustained fighting around active power stations in Ukraine and at the site of the Soviet-era meltdown, Chernobyl. Live conflict in close proximity to civil nuclear installations leading to nuclear accident is the most likely scenario for fallout emerging directly from this war.

The Cold War, the last time the nuclear threat level was anything close to today, saw widescale public information campaigns on surviving an event. While ‘duck and cover’ may have been consigned to the annals of time, public awareness of both risks and mitigations is low. We must do more, building on the local resilience forum model, to include national strategic planning in conjunction with the private sector to prepare.

Aside from Ukraine, Iran’s claims to be nuclear weapon capable, North Korean ambitions, and the risk of ‘dirty bombs’ in terrorist hands, show in the words of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres ‘humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away, from nuclear annihilation’.

The main lesson to have emerged from the conflict is of ‘energy security’ – so much so that we now have a government department dedicated to it. Russia has turned off the gas to Europe; the West has awoken to the reality that it must finally start delivering alternative energy to be self-sufficient. Expansion of the self-reliance model on a global scale will inevitably, lead to civil nuclear proliferation, including in less stable and developing countries, even those prone to civil war or natural catastrophe.

Yet, recent ground-breaking work in nuclear fusion and the development of smart reactorscould also pave the way for greener energy and greater energy resilience. It would be more than a shame if the rhetoric around nuclear risk deterred investment in these transformative technologies.

Sadly, as we mark the anniversary of that unprecedented assault on sovereign authority, the world is a much less safe and certain place. Nobody wants to countenance the unthinkable but whether there is nuclear warhead deployment in Ukraine or damage to a nuclear plant there, or expansion of civil nuclear energy more widely, we must be prepared for every eventuality emerging from a radically changed set of international circumstances. This is a lesson we must learn too.

Tomorrow’s anniversary will not be one to celebrate. If there is a positive to be drawn from this brutal and illegal invasion, let it be that we are serious about emerging risks, not just thrown up by the immediacy of the conflict, but when looking to deliver energy resilience, too, at home and abroad. With “90 seconds until midnight”, there has never been greater urgency.